Enough fiscal theatre — the budget needs honest numbers
Both sides lean on cyclically strong revenue to flatter the bottom line. Voters deserve the structural truth.
Hugh Mercer
Columnist · Policy · Friday 29 May 2026 · 5 min read
A surplus built on high commodity prices and full employment is not the same as a structurally balanced budget. Yet that distinction keeps vanishing from the political conversation.
When the terms of trade are kind, receipts flatter the numbers. When they turn, the underlying gap reappears — and it has been widening for a decade.
Honest fiscal accounting would separate the cyclical sugar hit from the structural position. It would make for worse politics and far better policy.
Hugh Mercer
Columnist · Policy · Economist and former adviser
Hugh covers the intersection of economic policy, regulation and markets.