MYEFO reveals surplus narrowing as commodity windfall fades
Treasury's mid-year update trims the forecast surplus, with lower iron ore and coal price assumptions doing most of the damage.
Tom Whitlock
Policy & Macro Correspondent · Monday 1 June 2026 · 5 min read
You have 4 of 5 free articles left this month.
The Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook trimmed the projected underlying cash surplus as Treasury baked in more conservative commodity price assumptions.
Receipts were revised lower on softer terms of trade, partly offset by a resilient labour market lifting income tax collections.
Net debt as a share of GDP was little changed across the forward estimates.
The update reignites the structural-deficit debate, with economists noting the medium-term fiscal position still leans on cyclically strong revenue.
Tom Whitlock
Policy & Macro Correspondent · Ex-Treasury; economics honours
Tom reports on fiscal policy, the Federal Budget, superannuation and global macro.