Quarterly CPI preview: services the swing factor for the RBA
Goods disinflation is well advanced. Whether the RBA cuts next year hinges on stubborn services prices.
Tom Whitlock
Policy & Macro Correspondent · Sunday 31 May 2026 · 4 min read
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The upcoming quarterly inflation report is shaping as the most consequential data point of the season for rate expectations.
Goods prices have largely normalised as supply chains healed, leaving services — rents, insurance, and labour-intensive categories — as the decisive component.
Economists' forecasts cluster around a trimmed-mean print that would keep the RBA on hold but leave the door ajar to easing next year.
An upside surprise would all but rule out near-term cuts and could reignite talk of a final hike.
Tom Whitlock
Policy & Macro Correspondent · Ex-Treasury; economics honours
Tom reports on fiscal policy, the Federal Budget, superannuation and global macro.